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| Wednesday, 08 September 2010 |
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Wamalwa’s death - Kenya’s renaissance or ruin
By Patrick Ochieng
Vice President Michael Kijana Wamalwa’s death in a London Hospital has ramifications that go far beyond the sad demise of a Vice President. In these weeks of mourning the ruling coalition’s political resilience will be facing its most severe test in eight months. Kenya’s political stability is at stake. Are we headed for disaster and disintegration, or will the President rise to the occasion and provide the country with its first ever exercise in exorcism and catharsis, asks Patrick Ochieng
Wamalwa’s death happens at a time where politicians are wrangling about political posts and who should fill them. The Vice Presidency is vacant and the speculation about who it will be given to fuels one central question: Where is the centre of gravity of political power in Kenya today? NARC has during its time in power failed to develop an institutional framework, a social and a structural basis for its existence and this failure means that President Kibaki will be walking a tightrope in the weeks ahead.
In the eight months of NARC’s administration, the ruling coalition has referred to Kenya’s renaissance; merely because the term serves as a tonic for a people long condemned to bad governance and poverty. And it is none other than the late Wamalwa who last made reference to this term in his Madaraka day speech. The fact is that there are two possibilities facing Kenya now, renaissance or ruin. It is the positioning of the President that will determine which will come to pass. If indeed Kibaki rises to the occasion, he will be providing Kenya with its first exercise in exorcism and catharsis. The organisation of politics in Kenya around the fact of tribe is historical. The first President of Kenya, himself a Kikuyu, made his group feel for over a decade that they were the only pebbles on the beach, that they are best endowed with qualities to lead Kenya and when looked at against the backdrop of their sheer numbers perhaps this endowment is ordained by God. Moi took over and whereas faces changed, the philosophy remained the same. The only aspect of these two regimes, Kenyatta and Moi’s, that few scholars have written about is the fact that their locale of power revolved around the security system and its ubiquitous presence. Kenya’s political stability was then a function, not of a constitutional order but of the machinery of the ruling party: The provincial administration, the para-military GSU, the Special Branch, the CID, -all of which were crucial assets for the band wagon politics of the time. That is why Moi’s propelling into power following Kenyatta’s death was uneventful. It is also the reason why Moi’s men exuded confidence and bravado in the run up to last year’s election despite the fact that the opposition had united in a bid to oust them from power. It simply was not deemed possible that a new philosophy, not linked to ethnicity, not linked to security, but born out of a national need for prosperity was brewing in the Kenyan population. Before Kenyatta’s death there was an unofficial struggle for his replacement just as was the case with Moi. The Moi/Njonjo alliance in 1978 pushed the view that it is in the best interest of Kenya to have a second president who was non-Kikuyu - against the Kikuyu who regarded the presidency as their legitimate inheritance and a guarantee to their privileged position. In 2002, the Moi/Raila axis portrayed the post-Moi era as one, which should be marked by partnership for Kenya. Power ought to be shared and politicians ought to be astute enough to discuss with both friend and foe. That thought was carried forth by NARC up to and after the December elections, and although objectively speaking enticing, it is now history. Kenya’s political scene has undergone a tremendous change in perspective. NARC won the elections as a united front but is in disarray as we write today. One would have thought that NARC would plan, rehearse and creatively orchestrate its politics. One would have thought that NARC would have gone out of its way to prove to Kenyans how different it is from past regimes. That has not happened. Eight months down the line, our new government still has not developed its institutional framework. Our President is accused of fence-sitting when it comes to taking positions on issues of national and ideological importance and in-fighting amongst coalition parties and personalities is as intense as ever. We seem to be right back where we were. Stuck in the same old rut and rot, which prevents political maturity from taking root and prevents politicians from delivering on their promises to Kenyans, simply because they are too busy playing the political game. Is NARC just another tyranny whose ideology remains the same as that of Moi and Kenyatta ? It is with this sneaking suspicion and lurking apprehension that we face the death of patriot Wamalwa. The mistake Kenyans made was to look at the NARC government as the elixir of the immediate problems beleaguering Kenyans. NARC would have shown itself as a timely magic wand if it had set out to complete the constitutional review process in time and as a top priority; if it made decisions based on its council system and subjected each decision to public scrutiny and if it favoured institution building rather than personality cults. That is the NARC that was portrayed as coming into power. It is not the NARC that now holds power. Kibaki will be looking for Wamalwa’s replacement not in free hear but behind the closed doors of boardrooms. There will be jockeying and jostling even before Wamalwa’s remains are buried. The constitutional order is limping, the ruling coalition lacks a machinery for leadership and eight months has not provided enough time to galvanise the security system in such a way that it can serve the narrow interests of a predatory state. Will the position of VP go to Mukhisa Kituyi, a Ford Kenya member, or Moody Awori, a respected senior politician from Western Kenya? Or will Kibaki break with tradition and toss NAK in the air by giving this position to someone from the greater Kenya say Charity Ngilu or Kipruto Kirwa on grounds that national interests supersede regional interests? Or will the man from Othaya build a bridge with Raila Odinga, his nemesis, or slap Raila by appointing another Luo say Anyang Nyongo to this position?
If Kituyi goes to Cancun we will know he is not on the list. If Kibaki listens to Kiraitu, NARC will be as good as buried. If, however, Kibaki brings his wits to this task and acts as a President seeking national unity, Kenya will be on course again, the course of catharsis and exorcism. For this to happen, Kibaki will have to abandon the notion of an imperial president. He will have to pin the future of this country on more than one person. He will have to differentiate autocracy from democracy. He will have to look back to the time before December 2002, put his ear to the ground and start listening to what it is Kenyans want and expect of his ruling coalition. It is renaissance or ruin for Kenya, make or break. The time for choice and the baring of true colours has come.
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